We have already seen how the relative strength of a poker hand can increase or decrease as flop, turn and river is dealt. For example A♣A♠ is a big favourite against A♥K♥ pre-flop, but becomes a huge underdog if the flop comes Q♥8♥2♥.
If you have a hand that is probably behind, but has the potential to improve to a winner, you need to decide whether it is worth continuing with it through the various streets, and how much you are prepared to pay to do so.
- How to Calculate Poker Outs & Pot Odds Although poker is a game of facial expressions, intuition and mind reading, it’s also a game largely based on math. You’ll use math in every aspect of the game, from cash to sit n goes to tournaments.
- Simply put, odds are the chances – for or against – the player making a particular hand. If a player holds four cards of a flush, the odds against completing the flushare calculated at approximately 4-to-1. The numbers can be a little confusing. They don’t mean that the player has a 1-in-4 chance (25 percent) of completing the hand.
This article explains the calculations required to make the right decision about “drawing hands”, ie, hands that will need to connect with later community cards to win.
In short, you need to identify the cards that will improve your hand (known as “outs”), and then determine how significant an advantage you will have. Finally you will need to calculate your odds of winning and whether the pot size makes the whole process worthwhile.
Como ganar ala ruleta electronica casino. You need to use some basic mathematics to help you make correct decisions.
Calculating Outs
Poker Outs & Odds are one of them. A long time ago I stumbled across an Outs & Odds sheet like this one which I just created: As a quick explanation of how to use this chart, I’ll go over an example. If you’ve got an open-ended straight draw w/78 on a board of A56, you’ve got 8 outs to hit the straight on the turn or river.
“Outs” are the cards left in the deck that improve your hand and hopefully win the pot at showdown.
Example with a flush draw
You are holding A♥3♥ and the flop is: 7♥9♣K♥. If another heart appears on the turn or river, you make the flush, and unless another player has a full house or better, you will win the hand. (The board isn’t paired, so none of our opponents can have a full house yet.)
There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. You hold two of them, and another two are on the board. Four of the 13 hearts have therefore already been dealt, meaning that there are still nine hearts left in the deck. This means you have nine outs.
Example with a straight draw
You have J♠10♠ and the flop is 6♣Q♥K♥. Now any ace or nine will complete your straight. There are four aces and four nines in the deck, so you have eight outs.
Poker Odds And Outs
If one card is missing to complete a straight, you have four outs. For example, if your hole cards were A♥J♠ and the flop was K♣Q♥7♦, your outs would be 10♠10♣10♥10♦.
Example with a straght draw and overcards
You have K♥J♥, and the board is A♠10♦2♣. One of the four queens in the deck will make you a straight. If your opponent has a middle pocket pair, e.g. 9♣9♥, then you have additional outs, as any king or any jack would give you a higher pair.
In this case, the number of your outs would increase to ten (four queens, three kings, and three jacks).
Example with a set against a flush draw
If you hold 7♦7♥ and hit a set on a board showing 2♠7♠J♠, you have a pretty strong hand. But it is not definitely a winner and could already be behind if any of your opponents has two spades in their hands.
However, you still have the chance here of improving your hand even further. There are seven cards that could make you a full house or better (a seven, three remaining twos and three remaining jacks), or the turn and river could be the same rank, which would also give you a full house.
Example with a straight draw AND a flush draw
You hold 6♥7♥ and the board is 4♥5♣J♥. You have both an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. This means you have nine outs to make the flush and eight outs to make the straight. At the same time, you have to consider that two cards are counted twice (in this case the 3♥ and the 8♥), which have to be subtracted. Therefore you have a total of 15 outs here.
Hidden Outs
Although the term “out” typically refers to a card that improves your hand, there are also sometimes “hidden outs”, which help you because they reduce the value of your opponent’s hand.
Example of hidden outs
You hold A♣K♣ and your opponent has 3♥3♠. The board is J♦J♠5♣6♦. Not only would the three kings and the three aces give you a higher two pair than your opponent, but any six or five would help as well. This is because with a five or six, the board contains two pairs that are both higher than your opponent’s pocket threes, meaning that the fifth card, the kicker, would decide the outcome of the hand. Your ace is the best possible kicker.
In this instance, you have 12 outs, six of which are hidden.
Discounted Outs
Advanced players don’t only calculate their own outs when on a draw. They also ask themselves what hand their opponent has, and whether one of the cards they hope to appear might also give the other player an even better hand. Cards like this are known as “discounted outs”.
Let’s look at the straight draw example again:
You have J♠10♠ and the flop is 6♣Q♥K♥. You have calculated eight outs so far (four aces and four nines).
But how will your outs change if one your opponents has two hearts e.g. 7♥6♥ and is therefore drawing to a flush? In this example, two of your outs, i.e. A♥ and the 9♥, would give your opponent a better hand – even if you hit your straight. This means you have to discount both cards from your outs. You would now only have six outs, which significantly reduces your chances of winning the hand.
In general you should take a pessimistic approach when it comes to discounting outs, as it is better to discount one out too many than one too few!
Probability and Odds
There are two very simple rules of thumb for calculating the probability of improving your hand using your outs:
The probability of hitting a draw on the next card is: [number of outs] x 2
The probability of hitting a draw on the turn and/or river is: [number of outs] x 4
A flush draw on the turn
You have a flush draw on the turn (nine outs). The probability of hitting the draw is [number of outs] x 2 = [winning probability in percent]:
9 x 2 = 18%
![Outs Outs](/uploads/1/3/8/4/138479767/605247128.jpg)
A straight draw on the flop
You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and want to know the probability of making a straight with two cards to come. The rule of thumb is: [number of outs] x 4 = [winning probability in percent]:
4 x 4 = 16%
Calculating Odds
Probabilities can be displayed as a ratio or odds, which is very helpful when playing poker.
Odds describe the ratio between the probability of winning and losing.
The winning probability is calculated as before. The losing probability is therefore:
[Losing probability] = 100% – [winning probability]
The winning probability is calculated as before. The losing probability is therefore:
[Losing probability] = 100% – [winning probability]
It’s best to commit the most important odds to memory, instead of having to calculate them again and again.
Examples of calculating odds
With middle pair:
You are holding A♥8♣ on a board of K♠8♥3♣2♦. You’ve got middle pair. Assume that your opponent has top pair, with K♣Q♦ for instance.
You have five outs: three aces and two eights. The probability of improving your hand is 10% (5 outs x 2). The probability that your hand doesn’t improve is therefore: 100% – 10% = 90%.
The odds are now [losing probability] / [winning probability]
In numbers: 90% / 10%. This can be simplified (both sides divided by 10), with the result being odds of 9:1.
With overcards:
You have K♣Q♦ on a board of 10♠9♦5♣3♥. You assume that your opponent has top pair A♣10♥.
You therefore have ten outs (three kings and three queens for a higher pair and four jacks to make a straight) and your chance of winning is 20% (10 outs x 2). The probability that your hand will not improve is calculated as follows:
100% – 20% = 80%.
![Poker Odds And Outs Poker Odds And Outs](/uploads/1/3/8/4/138479767/750020859.png)
The odds therefore [losing probability] / [winning probability] are 80% / 20%, the result being odds of 4:1.
Odds table
Certain similar situations appear frequently in Texas Hold’em, and you should try to memorise the odds of your hand winning in those instances. The odds that are of particular importance and appear often are highlighted in the chart below.
Pot Odds
Calculating the odds of your hand improving is only the first step in deciding whether to continue in a pot. You then need to figure out whether the size of the pot itself is large enough to warrant pressing on.
For instance it would be pointless speculating $500 with a gutshot straight draw if you only stood to win about $50. You know that the odds of hitting your draw are slim, and the financial gain of making your hand are not good enough to make the risk worthwhile.
Most cases are slightly more tricky to calculate, but the principle is the same. You have to calculate what are known as “pot odds” – the ratio between the size of the pot and the bet facing you. Then you compare those odds with the odds of your hand winning.
The size of the pot refers to the chips that are already in the pot, as well as all the bets made in the current betting round. If the pot odds are higher than the odds of you winning, you should call (or in exceptional cases raise). If the pot odds are lower than your odds of winning, you should fold.
Example with nut flush draw
Poker Odds And Outs
You have A♥2♥ on a flop of 6♥K♠9♥, so you have the nut flush draw. You have nine outs on the flop and currently the pot is $4.
Your opponent bets $1.
Poker Odds And Outs Calculator
There is now $5 in the pot ($4 + $1), and it will cost you $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 5:1.
According to the table above, your odds of hitting your hand are 4:1. That means that the pot odds are higher than your hand’s chances of winning and you should therefore call.
You are paying $1 with a 4:1 chance of winning five times that amount. It is a good call – and some players might even raise here.
Example with straight draw
You have 8♦7♣ on a flop of A♣4♥5♠. This is a gutshot straight draw, meaning you have four outs (any six) to make your hand. There is $25 in the pot.
Your opponent bets $5.
There is now $30 in the pot ($25 + $5), and it is $5 to call. Your pot odds are therefore 6:1.
Poker Odds Outs Trainer
However, according to the table the odds of winning the hand are 10:1. You don’t have the right pot odds to continue in this hand and should therefore fold.
You would be forced to pay $5 with a 10:1 chance of winning only six times that amount. It would be a bad call.
Facing an All in bet
If your opponent moves all in on the flop, you can make the same calculations as described above, but this time look at the “Odds Flop to River” column. If your opponent is all-in, you have the advantage that no further bets are possible. If you call, you therefore get to see not only the turn, but also the river without having to risk more chips.
Example with a straight draw versus All in
You have J♣10♦ on a flop of Q♥9♠2♣, which is an open-ended straight draw. You have eight outs on the flop.
There is $50 in the pot and your opponent moves all-in for $25. You therefore have pot odds of 75 to 25 ($50 plus the $25), and is $25 to call. When simplified, the pot odds are 3:1.
If you call you get to see both the turn and the river without any further betting. According to the column “Odds Flop to River” in the odds table, the odds of winning the hand are 2:1, and because the pot odds are higher, you should make the call.
Conclusion
Calculating odds, outs and probabilities can seem difficult and time-consuming, especially if you are a beginner. But the basics are quite simple to understand and the ability to make simple calculations can help you build a very solid foundation for your game. This part of poker is very well worth learning, especially if you intend to progress further in the game.
If you continually play draws without getting the right odds, you will lose money in the long run. There will always be players who don’t care about odds and call too often. These players will occasionally get lucky and win a pot, but mostly they will lose and pay for it. On the other hand, you might be folding draws in situations where the odds are favorable.
If you use the strategies in this article consistently, you can avoid mistakes and gain an edge over your opponents.
Join us on our Discord channel.
Poker Odds Table Outs
Part #2 Of Our Beginners Poker Tournament Guide
Poker Odds, Outs and Expectation All Clearly And Concisely Explained!
Poker odds are a critical factor in success in online poker tournament strategy. While alone information on odds and outs will not make a player an instant winner, this knowledge will certainly give them an instantly profitable advantage over those players who do not understand these simple poker concepts correctly.
A good way to begin looking at poker odds and outs is in terms of expectation. During any game of poker we will be faced with a number of ‘bets’ at various prices. When you bet with the odds in your favor then you have a positive expectation. That is to say that regardless of the outcome of any particular hand you will show a profit over time. If you bet or call when the odds are against you then your wagers have a negative expectation, that is you will lose money over time.
The most commonly referenced form of poker odds are known as ‘Pot Odds’. This describes the price you are getting when calling a bet from an opponent compared to the current amount of money already in the pot.
For example, if the total pot - including your opponent’s last bet - was $100 and you had to call a $20 bet then your current pot-odds are exactly 5/1. Pot odds are useful when working out whether your call has a positive expectation. In this example, assuming this was the final bet of the hand, then you simply need to work out whether you have a greater than 20% (1 in 5) chance of winning the hand. If you think this is the case then calling will show a profit over time if you think your chances are lower then calling will lose money over time and your hand should be folded.
Pot-Odds can also be used before the last card is dealt. Imagine you have King-Jack of spades and by the time the turn card is dealt there are 2 other spades showing. With 1 card to come you are sure that hitting a spade will win the hand for you. In this situation you need to compare the pot-odds being offered to your chances of winning the hand. In this case you are approximately 4.5/1 against hitting that last spade (see ‘outs chart’ below for more information on this).
Thus if you are getting better than 4.5/1 odds from the pot then calling will show a profit over time. If you are getting less than this price then calling will lose money over time and you should not usually call the bet.
Looking at the current odds that you are getting by calling a bet leaves out one very important factor. You may be able to win one or more additional bets after the last card has been dealt. This is especially significant in No-Limit Holdem Tournaments where you can bet any amount you like. The additional bets you might win if you make your flush (for example) are known as the Implied-Odds and need to be factored into your expectation.
To return to the King-Jack of spades example, the pot-odds after the turn has been dealt there is $30 in the pot and your opponent bets $10 more. Here you are getting odds of 4/1 with a 4.5/1 of completing your flush, pot-odds alone indicate a negative expectation from this bet. However after the river, if you do make your flush by hitting that last spade then you estimate that your opponent will call an additional $20 bet. Your implied odds are now the $30 in the pot + $10 bet from your opponent + $20 on the river for a total of $60. This means that the real odds of your $10 call on the turn were 6/1. If you take 6/1 odds on a 4.5/1 chance then you will show a profit each time – you will have a positive expectation for the bet.
Planet Mark's Tool Tip! Did you know that poker software tools are available which automatically calculate the math, leaving you to outplay your opponents? I strongly recommend Tournament Indicator, which watches your opponents while you play then uses a unique algo based on Dan Harrington's famous 'M' to recommend the best action. This tool not only stops you from making mathematical mistakes, you can actually start profiting from poker tournaments while you are learning. Find out more and take a free trial at the Tournament Indicator Website now!
What are Poker ‘Outs’ and how are they calculated?
During the play of any hand there are a number of the unseen cards left in play that will improve your hand, and a number that will not. Any card that will improve your current holding is known as an ‘out’. Any hand that is not yet complete, for example 4 cards to a flush or 4 cards to a straight, is known as a ‘drawing hand’ or just ‘draw’. Poker odds can be used to assess whether your play has a positive expectation if you know the basic chart of ‘outs’ that will improve your hand.
A Full Outs Chart is Below - Here are the most common poker outs:
- 4 Cards to a Flush with 2 cards to come: Odds = 1.9/1 (35%)
- 4 Cards to a Flush with 1 card to come: Odds = 4.1/1 (19%)
- 4 Cards to a Straight with 2 cards to come: Odds = 2.2/1 (32%)
- 4 Cards to a Straight with 1 card to come: Odds = 4.7/1 (17%)
- Inside Straight Draw, 2-3-5-6, 2 cards to come: Odds = 4/1 (20%)
- Inside Straight Draw, 2-3-5-6, 1 card to come: Odds = 10/1 (10%)
As you gain experience in using poker odds and outs you will be able to quickly calculate your winning chances using simple math. After the flop in Holdem there are 5 cards which you have seen – and so 47 unseen cards. You calculate the number of cards that will help your hand out of those unseen cards and then divide this number by 47. For example if you calculate that 10 cards will improve your hand then (10/47) = 4.7/1 odds which is approximately 21% winning chance, with 2 cards to come then doubling the winning chances is close enough for most situations. Learning the most common outs from the chart below will help you make good decisions during a hand – remember that if you take positive expectation bets you will show a profit over time!
Number of Outs | 2 cards | ||
% | % | ||
1 | 46/1 | 22.5/1 | You Have Trips, Make Quads |
4,26% | 8,42% | You have a pair, make trips | |
3 | 14.7/1 | 7.01/1 | You hold 1 ace, make a pair of aces |
8,51% | 16,47% | You have 2-3-5-6, hit a 4 for inside straight | |
5 | 8.40/1 | 3.91/1 | |
12,77% | 24,14% | ||
7 | 5.71/1 | 2.59/1 | |
17,02% | 31,45% | You have 3-4-5-6, hit 2 or 7 for straight | |
9 | 4.22/1 | 1.86/1 | You have 4 to a flush, make flush |
21,28% | 38,39% | ||
11 | 3.27/1 | 1.40/1 | |
25,53% | 44,96% | You have 4 to flush + an ace, make either flush or A-A | |
13 | 2.61/1 | 1.08/1 | |
29,79% | 51,16% | ||
15 | 2.13/1 | 0.85/1 | You have 4 to flush and open-ended straight, make either hand |
34,04% | 56,98% | ||
17 | 1.76/1 | 0.67/1 | |
38,30% | 62,44% | ||
19 | 1.47/1 | 0.54/1 | |
42,55% | 67,53% | ||
21 | 1.24/1 | 0.43/1 | You have open ended straight flush + 2 overcards |
SNG Planet Tip: A quick way of calculating your chances of making a hand after the flop (with 2 cards to come) is the ‘Rule of 4’ – Simply Multiply the number of cards to make your hand by 4! For example if you have 4 to a flush on the flop then there are 9 unseen cards of your suit that will make your hand… 9*4 = 36% which is very close to the 34.97% shown on the outs chart above! With just one card to come you multiply by 2 instead.
One last thing, tournament pros tend to congregate at the bigger poker sites - you will find significantly easier games at mid-sized sites, especially those linked with sports-books and casino brands (since the 'gamblers' come over into the poker rooms!). I recommend 888 Poker as a fantastic place to profit from tournaments while you are learning. Check out the games for yourself, you will see the difference!